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Delhi Verdict: How exit polls got it wrong still

The exit polls predicted AAP victory but still they were way off the mark in the Delhi assembly election, with trends Tuesday indicating that the AAP has swept through the national capital and was set to win about 60 seats, not 38 or 40 as they did.

To their credit, exit polls did show Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was going to return to power in Delhi. But, they went wrong in the numbers and margin.

Half-a-dozen exit polls on Saturday said the AAP was likely to bag between 31 and 54 seats in the 70-member assembly. They would push back the BJP to the second spot and wipe out the Congress.

The AAP Tuesday romped home with about 60 seats, way more than what the exit polls that came out Saturday predicted.

The exit polls said the Bharatiya Janata Party could bag 17-35 seats. Here too they went wrong, with the BJP relegated to a second spot with a dismal show of seven seats.

The polls, however, got it right when it came to the Congress that ruled Delhi for 15 years until December 2013. They said the party would be routed, winning no seat or at best four seats. The Congress was not winning in any seat in the national capital.

Even senior AAP leader Yogendra Yadav, a noted psephologist, did not get it completely right. He said Saturday said his party was headed for a landslide and could get more than 50 seats.

Today’s Chanakya gave 48 seats to the AAP and 22 to the BJP. It said the Congress would be crushed.

The ABP-Nielsen survey gave the AAP 39 and the BJP 28 seats. The Times Now-C-Voter survey said the AAP was poised to win 31-39 seats and the BJP 27-35.

The India Today-Cicero put the AAP tally at 35-43 seats and of the BJP at 23-29. NDTV said the AAP could win 38 seats and the BJP 29.

The Axis-APM poll credited 53 seats to the AAP and 17 to the BJP.




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